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Washington CommandersRachaad White
#1 · RB · 6' 0" · 214 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 39.1 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutRachaad White isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Commanders fell into catch-up mode throughout the second half, a situation tailor-made for White's pass-catching acumen. The veteran offseason addition saw a hefty workload as a result, recording four more catches on four additional targets than he'd seen in Week 1. White is likely to continue in a complementary role behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt for the time being, but the former figures to continue seeing plenty of run anytime the Commanders are trailing.
Verdict
vs 22.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency35argues against it
Projection
30.9 RUSH YDS(×0.83 context)
L5 37.2 · L10 38.6 · med 38.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 22.8 · ceil 51.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
90%over
9 over · 1 under
Medium confidence95% CI 60%–98%Last 2015 games
80%over
12 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 55%–93%Season15 games
80%over
12 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 55%–93%Situational splits
Over 22.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away89%8/9Medium
Days since last game
3+ days79%11/14Medium
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
30thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
SEA allows 25.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rachaad White has gone over 22.5 RUSH YDS 9 of 10 decided times (90%) — versus 80% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 30th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (25.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 15.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 22.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.5%
Best Over
DraftKings-107
-4.3% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-4.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+19.7%
Our model puts the over at 69.2% vs the market's no-vig 49.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (22.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 80%.