Washington Commanders

Rachaad White Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rachaad White has gone over 8.5 FS in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Arizona State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.8 FS · our line

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OutRachaad White isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The Commanders also have Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Kaytron Allen, Jerome Ford and Jeremy McNichols competing for playing time, with Croskey-Merritt presumably being the other favorite to start. White easily has the most NFL experience of the group as both a rusher and pass catcher, but his efficiency on the ground was often a negative in Tampa Bay -- which is why he settled for a one-year, $2 million contract after piling up 4,106 yards from scrimmage and 25 TDs in four seasons. He's making a good impression with his new team and seems locked in for a Week 1 role, though it remains to be seen if White will get considerable rushing volume or be deployed more like a passing-down specialist.

Verdict

vs 8.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)91supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency9argues against it

Projection

7.5 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 6.8 · L10 10.2 · med 8.1

Consistency

Variable

floor 6.3 · ceil 12.9

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2013 games

38%over

5 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%

Season13 games

38%over

5 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	85%	11/13
	75%	9/12
	69%	9/13
8.5Current	38%	5/13
	31%	4/13
	23%	3/13
	23%	3/13

Last 13 games — FS per game vs. line 8.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 8.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away29%2/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%4/12Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt out-0.2 FS when he sits

Without (7g)

9.7 FS

29% over 8.5

With (6g)

9.9 FS

50% over 8.5

Last matchup — vs CAR

Jan 3, 2026

17thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

CAR allows 10.7 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Rachaad White has gone over 8.5 FS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 38% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most FS of 32 teams (10.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.