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Seattle SeahawksSam Darnold
#14 · QB · 6' 3" · 225 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 244.2 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam Darnold isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Quadriceps Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 15, 2026
Head coach Mike Macdonald labeled Darnold week-to-week Wednesday while adding that Darnold isn't expected to be placed on injured reserve due to his injury. Backup Drew Lock missed the previous two games due to an elbow injury but has a chance to return Sunday against the Cardinals and take over the starting role. If Lock isn't ready to suit up, 2025 third-round pick Jalen Milroe could be tabbed for the first regular-season start of the latter's NFL career. Per Henderson, Macdonald also revealed that Darnold suffered a cracked rib on the second play of Seattle's Week 8 loss to the Bears, but the QB managed to play through that injury and eventually injured his quadriceps late in the game.
Verdict
vs 226.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency51neutral
Projection
232.1 PASS YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 217.2 · L10 244.2 · med 226.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 188.0 · ceil 278.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 226.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 226.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Next matchup — vs ARI
Nov 8, 2026
13thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
ARI allows 237.6 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Sam Darnold has gone over 226.5 PASS YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 13th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (237.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 71.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 235.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.1%
Best Over
BetRivers-114
-4.5% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-105
-4.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+0.7%
Our model puts the over at 51.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (238.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.