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Seattle SeahawksSam Darnold Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Sam Darnold has gone over 2.5 RUSH YDS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 5.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Sam Darnold's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Lower Body Strain
questionable
Verdict
vs 2.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
5.7 RUSH YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 5.0 · L10 5.9 · med 5.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 9.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2018 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Season18 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 11/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 2.5Current | 44% | 8/18 | |
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 33% | 6/18 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
3rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
WSH allows 36.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Sam Darnold has gone over 2.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 44% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 3rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 5.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 51.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-102
-3.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-116
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+6.1%
Our model puts the over at 55.1% vs the market's no-vig 49.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Sam Darnold research
Sam Darnold — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Darnold Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Darnold Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Darnold Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.