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Detroit LionsSam LaPorta
#87 · TE · 6' 3" · 245 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 58.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam LaPorta isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After being limited to 1-18-0 on two targets in last Sunday's victory over the Packers, LaPorta remained quiet in a second straight divisional matchup with a formidable defense. A Week 9 date with the Dolphins will present a get-right spot for the tight end, who has 31 grabs for 367 yards and three touchdowns through seven games this season. LaPorta will be a locked-in TE1 play against Miami.
Verdict
vs 50.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency41neutral
Matchup75supports it
Projection
64.1 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 60.2 · L10 58.2 · med 50.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 44.0 · ceil 84.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 50.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/3Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Nov 8, 2026
9thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
MIA allows 30.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Sam LaPorta has gone over 50.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 9th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (30.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 20.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 48.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
Caesars-111
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+20.4%
Our model puts the over at 70.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (48.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.