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Detroit LionsSam LaPorta
#87 · TE · 6' 3" · 245 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 57.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam LaPorta isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The fourth-year tight end was one of Jared Goff's primary targets Thursday, finishing tied for second in receptions while checking in third in both receiving yards and targets. LaPorta also recorded his first touchdown catch of the season on a one-yard grab early in the fourth quarter, and over the first two games of the new campaign, he's encouragingly been targeted 15 times and parlayed those opportunities into 11 receptions for 100 yards and the TD. LaPorta should remain a key complementary option during a Week 3 home matchup against the Jets on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 52.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency33argues against it
Projection
68.2 REC YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 61.0 · L10 57.4 · med 52.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 37.8 · ceil 81.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 52.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 |
Situational splits
Over 52.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Sep 27, 2026
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NYJ allows 16.7 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Sam LaPorta has gone over 52.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (16.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 23.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 46.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+21.9%
Our model puts the over at 71.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (46.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.