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Detroit LionsSam LaPorta Targets
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Sam LaPorta has gone over 6.5 TGT in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 7.0 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam LaPorta isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After being limited to 1-18-0 on two targets in last Sunday's victory over the Packers, LaPorta remained quiet in a second straight divisional matchup with a formidable defense. A Week 9 date with the Dolphins will present a get-right spot for the tight end, who has 31 grabs for 367 yards and three touchdowns through seven games this season. LaPorta will be a locked-in TE1 play against Miami.
Verdict
vs 6.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
7.0 TGT(×1.03 context)
L5 6.8 · L10 7.0 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 6.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Nov 8, 2026
19thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
MIA allows 3.4 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Sam LaPorta has gone over 6.5 TGT 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 19th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.4 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Sam LaPorta research
Sam LaPorta — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
LaPorta Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
LaPorta Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
LaPorta Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.