Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Saquon Barkley has gone over 12.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 13.4 FS · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Saquon Barkley's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Hamstring Not Specified

Barkley followed up Wednesday's DNP with some activity one day later as he deals with lingering hamstring and back injuries. Friday's practice report will determine if he enters the weekend with a designation for Sunday's game against the Giants. While playing through those health concerns this past Sunday in Washington, Barkley logged a 32 percent snap share and racked up 14 touches for 54 yards from scrimmage and one rushing TD.

Verdict

vs 12.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 7/100· model 61% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency15argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

11.0 FS(×0.89 context)

L5 10.7 · L10 12.6 · med 12.4

Consistency

Variable

floor 8.7 · ceil 17.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2016 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Season16 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	63%	10/16
	56%	9/16
	56%	9/16
12.5Current	44%	7/16
	38%	6/16
	38%	6/16
	38%	6/16

Last 16 games — FS per game vs. line 12.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 12.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away40%4/10Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%6/15Medium

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Makai Lemon out+4.0 FS when he sits

Without (13g)

14.1 FS

54% over 12.5

With (3g)

10.1 FS

0% over 12.5

Next matchup — vs NYG

Nov 8, 2026

14thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

NYG allows 10.6 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 13 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Saquon Barkley has gone over 12.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 44% across the full season. NYG has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most FS of 32 teams (10.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.