Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Saquon Barkley has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutSaquon Barkley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mannion is overhauling the Philadelphia offense, including new terminology, while head coach Nick Sirianni shifts to a more hands-off, executive role. That could always change if things don't go well early in the season, but it nonetheless sounds promising for Barkley in light of his disappointing 2025 campaign in a stagnant offense. Of course, he's not the only one who will need to adjust to a new scheme, with fantasy results partially depending on how QB Jalen Hurts and the offensive line respond to Mannion's changes.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 95% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×1.07 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2016 games

6%over

1 over · 15 under

Medium confidence95% CI 1%–28%

Season16 games

6%over

1 over · 15 under

Medium confidence95% CI 1%–28%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	6%	1/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home14%1/7Low

Away0%0/9Medium

Days since last game

3+ days7%1/15Medium

Last matchup — vs SF

Jan 11, 2026

20thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

SF allows 0.1 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 37 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Saquon Barkley has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 6% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 20th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 6%.