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Cleveland BrownsShedeur Sanders
#12 · QB · 6' 2" · 212 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Colorado
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 175.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutShedeur Sanders isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After winning the battle for the starting job during the preseason, Watson will direct the offense for a second straight game to begin the regular season, but he heads into Sunday's contest with limited job security. In the Browns' season-opening 34-10 loss to the Jaguars, Watson struggled to move the ball throughout the afternoon, completing 16 of 22 attempts for 205 yards and an interception while throwing his lone touchdown with less than two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. If Watson bounces back with a strong performance against Tampa Bay, he'll likely retain the starting job heading into the Browns' home opener Week 3 versus the Panthers, but another poor showing could set up Sanders to take over as the team's top quarterback.
Verdict
vs 167.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
172.0 PASS YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 199.0 · L10 175.0 · med 167.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 126.2 · ceil 199.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 167.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 167.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs CAR
Sep 27, 2026
31stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CAR allows 138.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Shedeur Sanders has gone over 167.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (138.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 85.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.