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Cleveland BrownsShedeur Sanders
#12 · QB · 6' 2" · 212 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Colorado
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 175.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutShedeur Sanders isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Sanders and Watson have been alternating first-team reps in the early days of camp. Watson got the first-team spot for Friday's training camp practice, so Sanders is set to take his next turn Monday, when the team puts on pads for the first time. Cleveland's quarterback competition is unlikely to be decided until after Sanders and Watson play in the preseason.
Verdict
vs 167.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
187.0 PASS YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 199.0 · L10 175.0 · med 167.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 126.2 · ceil 199.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 167.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 167.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — @ CIN
Jan 4, 2026
11thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CIN allows 228.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Shedeur Sanders has gone over 167.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 11th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (228.7 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 85.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.