Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders Completions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Shedeur Sanders has gone over 16.5 CMP in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Colorado
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 15.0 CMP · our line

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OutShedeur Sanders isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Sanders and Watson have been alternating first-team reps in the early days of camp. Watson got the first-team spot for Friday's training camp practice, so Sanders is set to take his next turn Monday, when the team puts on pads for the first time. Cleveland's quarterback competition is unlikely to be decided until after Sanders and Watson play in the preseason.

Verdict

vs 16.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency37argues against it

Projection

16.9 CMP(×1.10 context)

L5 17.8 · L10 15.0 · med 16.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 11.0 · ceil 19.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	63%	5/8
	63%	5/8
	63%	5/8
16.5Current	50%	4/8
	38%	3/8
	25%	2/8
	25%	2/8

Last 8 games — CMP per game vs. line 16.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 16.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Last matchup — @ CIN

Jan 4, 2026

21stof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

CIN allows 19.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Shedeur Sanders has gone over 16.5 CMP 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 21st-most CMP of 32 teams (19.0 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.