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Los Angeles RamsTerrance Ferguson
#18 · TE · 6' 5" · 252 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 31.4 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutTerrance Ferguson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Ferguson finished as the runner-up on the Rams in all of receptions, receiving yards and targets while closing out the scoring with a five-yard TD grab in the fourth quarter, as the second-year tight end saw a significant increase in opportunity in the absence of Puka Nacua (hip). Ferguson drew a sole target over 31 snaps in the Week 1 loss to the 49ers, and despite Monday night's surge in production, it will be difficult to trust any of the members of the Rams' deep tight-end room on a game-to-game basis.
Verdict
vs 34.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
37.8 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 33.2 · L10 31.4 · med 32.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 13.8 · ceil 54.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Last 209 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Season9 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Situational splits
Over 34.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away17%1/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Next matchup — @ DEN
Sep 28, 2026
17thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
DEN allows 21.8 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Terrance Ferguson has gone over 34.5 REC YDS 3 of 9 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. DEN has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 17th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (21.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 33.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-112
-5.6% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+0.8%
Our model puts the over at 50.6% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (33.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.