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Los Angeles RamsTerrance Ferguson
#18 · TE · 6' 5" · 252 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 28.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTerrance Ferguson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Oregon product had a quiet rookie campaign in 2025, catching 11 of 25 targets for 231 yards and three touchdowns over 14 regular-season games, but veteran tight end Tyler Higbee said he believes Ferguson is "going to be a great player." With that said, Ferguson could face plenty of competition for snaps during the coming campaign, as the Rams have a crowded tight-end room that includes Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen and second-round rookie Max Klare.
Verdict
vs 31.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
28.7 REC YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 22.4 · L10 28.6 · med 31.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 11.2 · ceil 45.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 31.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 31.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — @ CHI
Jan 18, 2026
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
CHI allows 29.1 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 31 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Terrance Ferguson has gone over 31.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (29.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.