Los Angeles Rams

Terrance Ferguson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Terrance Ferguson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutTerrance Ferguson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Ferguson finished as the runner-up on the Rams in all of receptions, receiving yards and targets while closing out the scoring with a five-yard TD grab in the fourth quarter, as the second-year tight end saw a significant increase in opportunity in the absence of Puka Nacua (hip). Ferguson drew a sole target over 31 snaps in the Week 1 loss to the 49ers, and despite Monday night's surge in production, it will be difficult to trust any of the members of the Rams' deep tight-end room on a game-to-game basis.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.6 REC TD(×1.10 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	44%	4/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%3/8Low

Next matchup — @ DEN

Sep 28, 2026

19thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

DEN allows 0.0 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 9 games, Terrance Ferguson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. DEN has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 19th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.