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Kansas City ChiefsTravis Kelce
#87 · TE · 6' 5" · 250 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 58.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTravis Kelce isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving yards and finished second in targets on the afternoon, and his tally in the former category also served as the legendary tight end's second highest of the season. Kelce got there with a big boost from a game-high 38-yard catch, and he'll take a formidable 33-482-2 line into a Week 10 road matchup against the Falcons next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 59.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency25argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
64.2 REC YDS(×1.12 context)
L5 56.0 · L10 58.5 · med 60.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 44.0 · ceil 71.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 59.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 59.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Nov 15, 2026
6thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
ATL allows 31.4 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Travis Kelce has gone over 59.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 6th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (31.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 26.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 46.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+8.0%
Our model puts the over at 58.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (46.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.