Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Travis Kelce has gone over 4.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Cincinnati
Experience: 15 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 4.6 REC · our line

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OutTravis Kelce isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

"He looked pretty good," head coach Andy Reid said of Kelce. "He stayed in shape." Kelce had an eventful offseason ahead of his 14th NFL seasons, as he married Taylor Swift on July 3. The 36-year-old tight end recorded at least 823 regular-season receiving yards in each of the previous 12 campaigns.

Verdict

vs 4.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency23argues against it

Projection

3.7 REC(×0.91 context)

L5 3.4 · L10 4.5 · med 4.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Season16 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	14/16
	81%	13/16
	75%	12/16
4.5Current	50%	8/16
	31%	5/16
	19%	3/16
	6%	1/16

Last 16 games — REC per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home63%5/8Low

Away38%3/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%8/15Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kenneth Walker III out-1.2 REC when he sits

Without (11g)

4.2 REC

55% over 4.5

With (5g)

5.4 REC

40% over 4.5

Last matchup — @ LV

Jan 4, 2026

17thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends

LV allows 2.6 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 25 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Travis Kelce has gone over 4.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LV has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 17th-most REC of 32 teams (2.6 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.