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Kansas City ChiefsTravis Kelce Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Travis Kelce has gone over 4.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 5.1 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTravis Kelce isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Patrick Mahomes was in vintage form Sunday night, and Kelce unsurprisingly was a big reason why. The legendary duo was in sync throughout the night, and it helped Kelce to team-high figures in receptions, receiving yards and targets. The veteran tight end has posted a combined 12-172-1 line on 16 targets over his first two games, making him a top option at his position in all formats as a tantalizing Week 3 road matchup against the Dolphins approaches next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency32argues against it
Projection
6.0 REC(×1.13 context)
L5 5.4 · L10 5.0 · med 4.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Season16 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 15/16 | ||
| 94% | 15/16 | ||
| 81% | 13/16 | ||
| 4.5Current | 56% | 9/16 | |
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 13% | 2/16 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%6/10Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%9/15Medium
Next matchup — @ MIA
Sep 27, 2026
2ndof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
MIA allows 5.0 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Travis Kelce has gone over 4.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC of 32 teams (5.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 3.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 56.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 43.8%
Best Over
DraftKings-139
-3.3% EV
Best Under
FanDuel+116
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+12.9%
Our model puts the over at 69.2% vs the market's no-vig 56.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.
More Travis Kelce research
Travis Kelce — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kelce Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Kelce Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Kelce Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.