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Atlanta FalconsTua Tagovailoa
#1 · QB · 6' 1" · 225 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Dec 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 190.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableTua Tagovailoa isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Oblique Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 24, 2026
Earlier Monday, head coach Kevin Stefanski told Josh Kendall of The Athletic that Tagovailoa was "getting better" after missing the Falcons' first two games of the season due to the oblique strain. The quarterback appears to have backed up his coach's comments by getting upgraded to a limited listing on the practice report, but Tagovailoa could need to participate fully Tuesday or Wednesday to put himself on a path to play Thursday against the Packers. If he's available for the Week 3 contest, Tagovailoa will be relegated to a backup role after the Falcons named Michael Penix (knee) their starting quarterback, per Tori McElhaney of the team's official site.
Verdict
vs 175.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency47neutral
Projection
171.0 PASS YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 176.2 · L10 190.8 · med 189.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 138.4 · ceil 254.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 175.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 175.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — @ GB
Sep 25, 2026
21stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
GB allows 190.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tua Tagovailoa has gone over 175.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 21st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (190.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 60.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.