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Atlanta FalconsTua Tagovailoa Completions
Stats updated: Dec 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tua Tagovailoa has gone over 18.5 CMP in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 18.6 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTua Tagovailoa isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Tagovailoa took part in his first full practice since Sept. 9, after he sustained an oblique injury a day later that kept him from playing in either of the Falcons' first two games of the season. The 28-year-old had been poised to direct the offense for Atlanta in Week 1 before the oblique injury cropped up, but he'll now have to settle for the No. 2 role with Michael Penix (knee) getting cleared to make his 2026 debut as the team's starting quarterback Thursday versus the Packers.
Verdict
vs 18.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency54neutral
Projection
15.8 CMP(×0.90 context)
L5 15.2 · L10 18.1 · med 17.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 13.6 · ceil 23.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 18.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — @ GB
Sep 25, 2026
16thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
GB allows 19.5 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tua Tagovailoa has gone over 18.5 CMP 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 16th-most CMP of 32 teams (19.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Tua Tagovailoa research
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NFL Heat Check→
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Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.