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Arizona CardinalsTyler Allgeier
#25 · RB · 5' 10" · 220 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- BYU
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 38.3 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyler Allgeier isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allgeier, who inked a two-year, $12.25 million contract with Arizona this offseason, could have an early angle at the lead backfield role with veteran James Conner still not handling 11-on-11 work, though Urban notes that rookie No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love got his share of reps with the first-team offense. While Love projects as the clear eventual leader of the Cardinals' backfield, Allgeier has seniority backing him for the time being and is no slouch, having averaged 4.3 yards per carry across his career. Trey Benson is also healthy and competing for a chance to factor into Arizona's backfield.
Verdict
vs 33.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency2argues against it
Projection
34.3 RUSH YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 34.4 · L10 36.0 · med 33.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 20.6 · ceil 55.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 33.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 |
Situational splits
Over 33.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%2/7Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jacoby Brissett out-6.7 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (6g)
35.0 RUSH YDS
33% over 33.5
With (6g)
41.7 RUSH YDS
67% over 33.5
Trey McBride out-1.9 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
37.2 RUSH YDS
40% over 33.5
With (7g)
39.1 RUSH YDS
57% over 33.5
Last matchup — vs NO
Jan 4, 2026
16thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NO allows 48.6 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 35 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tyler Allgeier has gone over 33.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 16th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (48.6 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 22.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.