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Arizona CardinalsTyler Allgeier Carries
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tyler Allgeier has gone over 15.5 CAR in 2 of his last 6 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- BYU
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Carries · season avg 11.2 CAR · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Carries (CAR)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutTyler Allgeier isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allegeier has reeled off 10-plus touches in four straight contests, a span in which he's turned 65 touches into 334 yards from scrimmage and two total TDs. He's been the beneficiary of repeated ankle injuries to rookie first-round pick Jeremiyah Love, who must remain on IR for at least three more outings after Sunday's matchup, and the other current top RB on the active roster (Bam Knight) is in the concussion protocol, which will require clearance from an independent neurologist for his next game action. As a result, Allgeier is set up to retain a significant workload until Knight gets the all clear to return.
Verdict
vs 15.5 CARCarriesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 85% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line85supports it
Consistency28argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
9.1 CAR(×0.82 context)
L5 10.0 · L10 11.2 · med 9.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.0 · ceil 17.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 106 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Last 206 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Season6 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Situational splits
Over 15.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/2Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days20%1/5Low
Next matchup — vs LAR
Nov 15, 2026
25thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs
LAR allows 10.1 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, Tyler Allgeier has gone over 15.5 CAR 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 25th-most CAR of 32 teams (10.1 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 15.5 CAR- No-vig fair (over)
- 47.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 52.7%
Best Over
Caesars+101
-5.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-115
-1.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-32.6%
Our model puts the over at 14.6% vs the market's no-vig 47.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Carries (CAR)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (15.5 CAR). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.
More Tyler Allgeier research
Tyler Allgeier — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Allgeier Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Allgeier Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Allgeier Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Allgeier Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.