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Chicago BearsTyson Bagent
#17 · QB · 6' 3" · 212 lb · 2 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 1 of these 2 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Shepherd
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 40.5 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyson Bagent isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Starting QB Caleb Williams left the game in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury, forcing Bagent into action on a wet and windy day at Soldier Field. The Bears will have a better idea of Williams' status after further testing, and they do get an extra day to prepare for a Monday night game at home against the Eagles in Week 3, but Bagent stands a good chance of getting the start for that contest with Case Keenum as his backup.
Verdict
vs 40.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency44neutral
Projection
41.1 PASS YDS
L5 40.5 · L10 40.5 · med 40.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 32.4 · ceil 48.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 40.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 40.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs PHI
Sep 29, 2026
27thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
PHI allows 173.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Tyson Bagent has gone over 40.5 PASS YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 27th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (173.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 13.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.