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Chicago BearsTyson Bagent
#17 · QB · 6' 3" · 212 lb · 2 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 1 of these 2 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Shepherd
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 40.5 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Tyson Bagent's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Concussion Concussion
With Caleb Williams viewed as week-to-week after suffering a hamstring injury in the Bears' Week 2 loss to the Vikings, Bagent appeared to be the leading candidate to start Monday against the Eagles. However, now that he's been placed in concussion protocol, Bagent's availability for Week 3 is suddenly up in the air. Third-stringer Case Keenum is left as the only healthy quarterback on the roster and could be in line to start against the Eagles if neither Williams nor Bagent is cleared to play Monday.
Verdict
vs 40.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency44neutral
Projection
41.1 PASS YDS
L5 40.5 · L10 40.5 · med 40.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 32.4 · ceil 48.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 40.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 40.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs PHI
Sep 29, 2026
26thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
PHI allows 173.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Tyson Bagent has gone over 40.5 PASS YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 26th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (173.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 13.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.