Chicago Bears

Tyson Bagent Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyson Bagent has gone over 1.5 FS in 2 of his last 2 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Shepherd
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 2.0 FS · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Tyson Bagent's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Concussion Concussion

With Caleb Williams viewed as week-to-week after suffering a hamstring injury in the Bears' Week 2 loss to the Vikings, Bagent appeared to be the leading candidate to start Monday against the Eagles. However, now that he's been placed in concussion protocol, Bagent's availability for Week 3 is suddenly up in the air. Third-stringer Case Keenum is left as the only healthy quarterback on the roster and could be in line to start against the Eagles if neither Williams nor Bagent is cleared to play Monday.

Verdict

vs 1.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Hot overFireFactor 57/100· model 99% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Consistency84supports it

Projection

2.0 FS

L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 1.9 · ceil 2.1

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 102 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 202 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Season2 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
1.5Current	100%	2/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — FS per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs PHI

Sep 29, 2026

11thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

PHI allows 18.8 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 2 games, Tyson Bagent has gone over 1.5 FS 2 of 2 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. PHI has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 11th-most FS of 32 teams (18.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.