Houston Texans

Xavier Hutchinson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 6 decided games (17%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutXavier Hutchinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Hutchinson finished tied with Kayshon Boutte for second on the team in targets behind fellow wideout Tank Dell (nine). Hutchinson was able to reach paydirt for the second straight contest, reeling in a 17-yard touchdown pass from C.J. Stroud for the team's first score of the day in the first quarter. There are many mouths to feed in Houston's passing attack, so Hutchinson will remain a volatile fantasy option ahead of the team's Week 10 matchup with the Browns.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 80% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line80supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.94 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 106 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Last 206 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Season6 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days20%1/5Low

Next matchup — @ CLE

Nov 15, 2026

19thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

CLE allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 29 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 6 decided times (17%) — versus 17% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 19th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 17%.