Houston Texans

Xavier Hutchinson Targets

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 4.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 5.1 TGT · our line

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OutXavier Hutchinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Collins remains Houston's clear-cut top wideout, with Koch having noted last month that Higgins and Noel both logged frequent reps in the first-team offense on the outside and in the slot, respectively. Hutchinson's role in 2026 is thus TDB, with Dell's ongoing recovery from a knee injury a notable moving part in that regard. In 17 regular-season games in 2025, Hutchinson compiled a 35-428-3 line on 57 targets, but steady volume may not be in the cards for the 2023 sixth-rounder out of the gate this season unless injuries hit the Texans' WR corps.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)45neutral

Projection vs line70supports it

Consistency8argues against it

Projection

7.3 TGT(×1.10 context)

L5 6.8 · L10 5.7 · med 5.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 5.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2013 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Season13 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	13/13
	100%	13/13
	62%	8/13
4.5Current	46%	6/13
	23%	3/13
	15%	2/13
	15%	2/13

Last 13 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away38%3/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%6/12Low

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 18, 2026

19thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 5.4 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 4.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 46% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 19th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.4 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.