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Kansas City ChiefsXavier Worthy
#1 · WR · 5' 11" · 165 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 41.1 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutXavier Worthy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Worthy finished third in receptions and targets on the night for the Chiefs, but he was fifth in receiving yards and well behind fourth-place Kenneth Walker's 61 yards. However, Worthy was able to salvage his fantasy line against Indianapolis with a one-yard touchdown reception late in the second quarter. The speedster saw Tyquan Thornton vulture some downfield targets Sunday night, and Worthy is now averaging a tiny 5.4 yards per catch over his first eight receptions of the new season. The 2024 first-round pick will look to break through downfield in a Week 3 road matchup against the Dolphins' vulnerable defense.
Verdict
vs 38.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
35.3 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 38.8 · L10 38.9 · med 35.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 23.8 · ceil 57.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 38.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 |
Situational splits
Over 38.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days42%5/12Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Sep 27, 2026
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIA allows 28.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Xavier Worthy has gone over 38.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 46% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (28.9 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 38.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.4%
Best Over
BetMGM-105
-1.3% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-110
-5.6% EV
Model vs market (over)-6.9%
Our model puts the over at 43.6% vs the market's no-vig 50.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (38.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.