Kansas City Chiefs

Xavier Worthy Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Xavier Worthy has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 6 decided games (17%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutXavier Worthy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Worthy put together another disappointing performance, reeling in three passes while failing to exceed 15 receiving yards for the second straight game. The wide receiver operated in a more prominent role for a couple weeks with Rashee Rice sidelined with a hamstring injury, but Rice returned to action Sunday and caught seven of eight targets for 53 yards. Worthy will continue to be an unappealing fantasy option ahead of the team's Week 9 matchup with the Jets.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 85% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line85supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×1.19 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 106 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Last 206 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Season6 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away0%0/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days20%1/5Low

Next matchup — vs NYJ

Nov 8, 2026

4thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

NYJ allows 0.4 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 21 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 6 games, Xavier Worthy has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 6 decided times (17%) — versus 17% across the full season. NYJ has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 17%.