Seattle Seahawks

Zach Charbonnet Targets

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Zach Charbonnet has gone over 1.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: UCLA
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.6 TGT · our line

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OutZach Charbonnet isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Knee - ACL Surgery
Est. return:: Oct 11, 2026

Because Charbonnet resides on the reserve/PUP list, he won't be eligible to practice until at least Week 5 prep, which would still be about a week and a half shy of being nine months removed from the torn left ACL he suffered Jan. 17. Once Seattle decides to open his practice window, he then will have three weeks to prove his health before either being activated or otherwise shut down for the rest of the season. As a result, he likely won't practice when he's first eligible to do so, but Macdonald's comments at least are an encouraging sign that Charbonnet is expected to return at some point in the regular season. Rookie first-rounder Jadarian Price, George Holani and Emanuel Wilson will continue to hold down the fort at running back for the Seahawks for as long as Charbonnet is sidelined.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.5 TGT(×1.12 context)

L5 2.8 · L10 1.9 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2015 games

53%over

8 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%

Season15 games

53%over

8 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	73%	11/15
1.5Current	53%	8/15
	20%	3/15
	13%	2/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away63%5/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%8/14Low

Next matchup — @ WSH

Sep 27, 2026

12thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

WSH allows 3.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Zach Charbonnet has gone over 1.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. WSH has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 12th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.