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Seattle SeahawksZach Charbonnet
#26 · RB · 6' 1" · 220 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- UCLA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 44.9 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutZach Charbonnet isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Charbonnet took the first carry of the night for Seattle, gaining an encouraging five yards on his first tote since tearing his left ACL in a divisional-round win over the 49ers in January. He also subsequently rattled off a 13-yard gain in the third quarter, but he was limited on his other touches and ultimately had four fewer rush attempts than Jadarian Price. Charbonnet's snap share and touches should gradually increase, and a Week 9 home matchup against the Cardinals could serve as a good platform for his workload to see a nice bump.
Verdict
vs 37.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 33% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line33argues against it
Consistency9argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
55.4 RUSH YDS(×1.12 context)
L5 54.0 · L10 51.3 · med 41.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 25.0 · ceil 52.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Situational splits
Over 37.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
Next matchup — vs ARI
Nov 8, 2026
18thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
ARI allows 44.2 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Zach Charbonnet has gone over 37.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (44.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 24.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 35.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-113
-5.9% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+17.0%
Our model puts the over at 66.9% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (35.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.