Seattle Seahawks

Zach Charbonnet Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Zach Charbonnet has gone over 11.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: UCLA
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 11.3 FS · our line

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OutZach Charbonnet isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Knee - ACL Surgery
Est. return:: Sep 9, 2026

The move doesn't come as a surprise, as Charbonnet is coming back from February knee surgery. While a timetable has yet to be outlined for his return, coach Mike Macdonald has been impressed by the work that the running back has been putting in during his rehab process. "He's doing a great job," Macdonald said of Charbonnet last month. "I know he has high expectations for himself, and we're looking forward to seeing where it ends up." At this stage, the expectation is that Charbonnet will miss time out of the gate this season, but once he's ready to return to game action, the 2023 second-rounder will look to claim a key role in a Seahawks RB corps that no longer includes Kenneth Walker. For now, Jadarian Price, George Holani and Emanuel Wilson are the team's top healthy options at the position.

Verdict

vs 11.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 39% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral

Projection vs line39argues against it

Consistency3argues against it

Projection

15.1 FS(×1.06 context)

L5 14.4 · L10 12.9 · med 12.8

Consistency

Variable

floor 5.4 · ceil 16.1

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2015 games

47%over

7 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%

Season15 games

47%over

7 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	10/15
	60%	9/15
	60%	9/15
11.5Current	47%	7/15
	33%	5/15
	33%	5/15
	27%	4/15

Last 15 games — FS per game vs. line 11.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 11.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away38%3/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%7/14Low

Last matchup — @ SF

Jan 4, 2026

10thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

SF allows 11.9 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 37 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Zach Charbonnet has gone over 11.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most FS of 32 teams (11.9 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.