Florida Panthers

Brad Marchand Blocked Shots

Stats updated: Mar 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brad Marchand has gone over 0.5 BLKD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 18 seasons

Line

PrizePicksBlocked Shots · season avg 0.3 BLKD · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutBrad Marchand isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Lower Body
Est. return:: Nov 2, 2026

Marchand will miss Florida's first 14 regular-season games if he's able to return Nov. 2 versus Detroit. He had 27 goals, 54 points, 38 PIM and 36 hits in 52 regular-season outings with the Panthers in 2025-26. The 38-year-old might find it difficult to initially shake off the rust after missing the start of the campaign, which could impact his production after returning from the injury.

Verdict

vs 0.5 BLKDBlocked Shots

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line78supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 BLKD(×0.93 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2020 games

25%over

5 over · 15 under

Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%

Season40 games

28%over

11 over · 29 under

Medium confidence95% CI 16%–43%

Alternate lines — Blocked Shots (BLKD)

BLKD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate BLKD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	28%	11/40
	5%	2/40
	0%	0/40
	0%	0/40

Last 20 games — BLKD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 BLKD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%9/27Medium

Away15%2/13Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)33%3/9Low

1 day25%3/12Medium

2 days40%2/5Low

3+ days25%3/12Medium

With a teammate out

How this BLKD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Brady Tkachuk out · Undisclosed+0.3 BLKD when he sits

Without (24g)

0.5 BLKD

38% over 0.5

With (16g)

0.1 BLKD

13% over 0.5

Jonah Gadjovich out · Not Specified Upper Body Surgery+0.3 BLKD when he sits

Without (31g)

0.4 BLKD

32% over 0.5

With (9g)

0.1 BLKD

11% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ NYI

Mar 1, 2026

4thof 32 in BLKD allowed to forwards

NYI allows 0.6 BLKD per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 480 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Brad Marchand has gone over 0.5 BLKD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 28% across the full season. NYI has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 4th-most BLKD of 32 teams (0.6 per game). His game-to-game BLKD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 28%.