Florida Panthers

Brad Marchand Points

Stats updated: Mar 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brad Marchand has gone over 1.5 PTS in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 18 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPoints · season avg 1.2 PTS · our line

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OutBrad Marchand isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Lower Body
Est. return:: Nov 2, 2026

Marchand will miss Florida's first 14 regular-season games if he's able to return Nov. 2 versus Detroit. He had 27 goals, 54 points, 38 PIM and 36 hits in 52 regular-season outings with the Panthers in 2025-26. The 38-year-old might find it difficult to initially shake off the rust after missing the start of the campaign, which could impact his production after returning from the injury.

Verdict

vs 1.5 PTSPoints

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line76supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

0.9 PTS(×0.86 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2020 games

30%over

6 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%

Season40 games

30%over

12 over · 28 under

Medium confidence95% CI 18%–45%

Alternate lines — Points (PTS)

PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PTS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	78%	31/40
1.5Current	30%	12/40
	8%	3/40
	3%	1/40
	0%	0/40

Last 20 games — PTS per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home30%8/27Medium

Away31%4/13Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)11%1/9Medium

1 day42%5/12Low

2 days40%2/5Low

3+ days25%3/12Medium

With a teammate out

How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jonah Gadjovich out · Not Specified Upper Body Surgery

Without (31g)

1.2 PTS

29% over 1.5

With (9g)

1.2 PTS

33% over 1.5

Next matchup — @ CAR

Sep 22, 2026

28thof 32 in PTS allowed to forwards

CAR allows 0.5 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 597 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Brad Marchand has gone over 1.5 PTS 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 30% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 28th-most PTS of 32 teams (0.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 30%.