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Dallas StarsOskar Back
#10 · C · 6' 4" · 207 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Oct 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.4 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutOskar Back isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Finger Fracture
- Est. return:
- Nov 14, 2026
Back's shift to long-term injured reserve was done in tandem with Esa Lindell's retroactive placement on IR. The 26-year-old Back sustained his finger injury during the Stars' clash with the Avalanche on Oct. 14. Prior to going down, the center had posted an assist, two PIM, four shots on net, five hits and nine blocked shots over seven outings. In his absence, Colin Blackwell should continue to see a consistent role.
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.4 SOG
L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days33%1/3Low
Last matchup — vs COL
Oct 13, 2026
24thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
COL allows 1.7 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 104 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Oskar Back has gone over 0.5 SOG 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. COL has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 24th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.