Dallas Stars

Oskar Back Assists

Stats updated: Oct 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Oskar Back has gone over 0.5 AST in 1 of his last 5 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksAssists · season avg 0.2 AST · our line

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OutOskar Back isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Finger Fracture
Est. return:: Nov 14, 2026

Back's shift to long-term injured reserve was done in tandem with Esa Lindell's retroactive placement on IR. The 26-year-old Back sustained his finger injury during the Stars' clash with the Avalanche on Oct. 14. Prior to going down, the center had posted an assist, two PIM, four shots on net, five hits and nine blocked shots over seven outings. In his absence, Colin Blackwell should continue to see a consistent role.

Verdict

vs 0.5 ASTAssists

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 84% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line84supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 AST

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 105 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 205 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Season5 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Alternate lines — Assists (AST)

AST over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate AST line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	1/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — AST per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 AST by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

1 day0%0/1Low

2 days33%1/3Low

Last matchup — vs COL

Oct 13, 2026

9thof 32 in AST allowed to forwards

COL allows 0.4 AST per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 104 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 5 games, Oskar Back has gone over 0.5 AST 1 of 5 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. COL has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 9th-most AST of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game AST have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.