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Phoenix MercuryJovana Nogic
#29 · G · 6' 1" · 8 games
Stats updated: Jul 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Providence
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Points · season avg 15.3 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJovana Nogic isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Injury Related
- Est. return:
- May 1, 2027
Nogic had her contract temporarily suspended June 20 and will now be out for the remainder of the WNBA season, as she's slated to compete overseas in Russia with an eye on leading the Serbian national team in the EuroBasket 2027 qualifiers. The guard appeared in 16 games (seven starts) for Phoenix, averaging 10.4 points, 1.6 assists and 1.1 rebounds in 20.2 minutes per contest. With Nogic out of the fold for the foreseeable future, Alexa Held stands to continue benefiting from expanded opportunities in the backcourt.
Verdict
vs 14.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency42neutral
Projection
13.8 PTS(×1.00 context)
L5 12.0 · L10 15.3 · med 14.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 11.4 · ceil 17.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 14.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
1 day67%2/3Low
3+ days25%1/4Low
Last matchup — vs LV
Jun 18, 2026
11thof 15 in PTS allowed to guards
LV allows 11.2 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 74 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Jovana Nogic has gone over 14.5 PTS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 11th-most PTS of 15 teams (11.2 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.