Phoenix Mercury

Jovana Nogic Assists

Stats updated: Jul 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jovana Nogic has gone over 2.5 AST in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Providence
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksAssists · season avg 2.3 AST · our line

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OutJovana Nogic isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Injury Related
Est. return:: May 1, 2027

Nogic had her contract temporarily suspended June 20 and will now be out for the remainder of the WNBA season, as she's slated to compete overseas in Russia with an eye on leading the Serbian national team in the EuroBasket 2027 qualifiers. The guard appeared in 16 games (seven starts) for Phoenix, averaging 10.4 points, 1.6 assists and 1.1 rebounds in 20.2 minutes per contest. With Nogic out of the fold for the foreseeable future, Alexa Held stands to continue benefiting from expanded opportunities in the backcourt.

Verdict

vs 2.5 ASTAssists

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line41neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.2 AST(×1.00 context)

L5 2.6 · L10 2.3 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.4 · ceil 3.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Assists (AST)

AST over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate AST line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	6/8
	50%	4/8
2.5Current	50%	4/8
	25%	2/8
	13%	1/8
	13%	1/8

Last 8 games — AST per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 AST by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

1 day33%1/3Low

3+ days50%2/4Low

Last matchup — vs LV

Jun 18, 2026

15thof 15 in AST allowed to guards

LV allows 2.5 AST per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 74 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Jovana Nogic has gone over 2.5 AST 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 15th-most AST of 15 teams (2.5 per game). His game-to-game AST have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.