Portland Fire

Sarah Ashlee Barker Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jul 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Sarah Ashlee Barker has gone over 25.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Alabama
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 25.6 FS · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutSarah Ashlee Barker isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Knee Surgery
Est. return:: May 1, 2027

Barker was helped to the locker room in the first quarter of Wednesday's loss to the Wings, and she's now been diagnosed with a season-ending injury. The second-year guard took on a significant role for the Fire after the club selected her in the 2026 WNBA Expansion Draft. Across 26 regular-season games (15 starts), the 24-year-old averaged 10.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 0.9 steals in 24.7 minutes per contest. Karlie Samuelson, Teja Oblak and Nyadiew Puoch are candidates for increased playing time in Barker's stead.

Verdict

vs 25.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency74supports it

Projection

27.5 FS(×1.04 context)

L5 27.5 · L10 25.6 · med 25.1

Consistency

Steady

floor 21.8 · ceil 30.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	60%	6/10
	60%	6/10
	50%	5/10
25.5Current	50%	5/10
	40%	4/10
	30%	3/10
	30%	3/10

Last 10 games — FS per game vs. line 25.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 25.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low

1 day50%1/2Low

3+ days40%2/5Low

Last matchup — @ MIN

Jul 19, 2026

10thof 15 in FS allowed to guards

MIN allows 21.2 FS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 81 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Sarah Ashlee Barker has gone over 25.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 10th-most FS of 15 teams (21.2 per game). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.