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Dallas MavericksDereck Lively II
#2 · C · 7-1 · 230 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 1, Pick 12
- College
- Duke
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 4.8 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Dereck Lively II's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Foot Surgery
Lively is walking and lifting weights, though he's not quite ready to enter the next phase of his rehab. The 22-year-old big man is recovering from right foot surgery, which cut his season short in December of last yar, and it remains uncertain if he'll be a full participant in training camp this fall. The Mavericks did take Morez Johnson with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft to improve its frontcourt, but Lively remains the most likely candidate to open next season as Dallas' starting center.
Verdict
vs 4.5 PTSPointsCold underFireFactor 56/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency44neutral
Projection
4.6 PTS
L5 4.8 · L10 4.8 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 4.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 105 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 205 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Season5 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 4.5Current | 20% | 1/5 | |
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home20%1/5Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/2Low
3+ days0%0/2Low
Last matchup — vs NOP
Nov 21, 2025
12thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
NOP allows 13.3 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 75 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Dereck Lively II has gone over 4.5 PTS 1 of 5 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. NOP has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 12th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.