Dallas Mavericks

Dereck Lively II Blocks

Stats updated: Nov 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dereck Lively II has gone over 1.5 BLK in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2023 · Rd 1, Pick 12
College: Duke
Country: USA
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksBlocks · season avg 1.8 BLK · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutDereck Lively II isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Foot Surgery
Est. return:: Nov 12, 2026

Although there haven't been any negative reports regarding Lively's rehab progress, it doesn't appear he will be back in the lineup anytime soon. For now, the 22-year-old should be considered week-to-week. While Lively remains on the shelf, Daniel Gafford and Moussa Cisse should continue to handle most of the work at the five. Santi Aldama (knee) might also get involved in that area once he's cleared to return.

Verdict

vs 1.5 BLKBlocks

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line52neutral

Consistency9argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

1.7 BLK(×0.96 context)

L5 1.8 · L10 1.8 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Blocks (BLK)

BLK over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate BLK line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	5/5
1.5Current	40%	2/5
	40%	2/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — BLK per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 BLK by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Days since last game

1 day50%1/2Low

3+ days50%1/2Low

Next matchup — vs BKN

Nov 9, 2026

12thof 30 in BLK allowed to centers

BKN allows 1.0 BLK per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 11 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 5 games, Dereck Lively II has gone over 1.5 BLK 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. BKN has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 12th-most BLK of 30 teams (1.0 per game). His game-to-game BLK have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.