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Memphis GrizzliesJa Morant
#12 · G · 6-2 · 174 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2019 · Rd 1, Pick 2
- College
- Murray State
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 20.3 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJa Morant isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Hamstring Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Dec 1, 2026
Morant was initially given a four-week timetable after he suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain on Oct. 30. It sounds like he's making solid progress, though it would be surprising to see him beat that timetable given the tricky nature of hamstring injuries. Scoot Henderson will continue to start in his absence and there will be more minutes available for Jrue Holiday.
Verdict
vs 20.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 31% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line31argues against it
Consistency41neutral
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
17.1 PTS(×0.85 context)
L5 20.2 · L10 20.5 · med 20.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 16.0 · ceil 23.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 20.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 17% | 2/12 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
1 day50%2/4Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — @ TOR
Nov 10, 2026
28thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
TOR allows 10.5 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 42 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ja Morant has gone over 20.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TOR has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 28th-most PTS of 30 teams (10.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.