Memphis Grizzlies

Ja Morant Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ja Morant has gone over 32.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2019 · Rd 1, Pick 2
College: Murray State
Country: USA
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 36.3 FS · our line

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OutJa Morant isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Hamstring Not Specified
Est. return:: Dec 1, 2026

Morant was initially given a four-week timetable after he suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain on Oct. 30. It sounds like he's making solid progress, though it would be surprising to see him beat that timetable given the tricky nature of hamstring injuries. Scoot Henderson will continue to start in his absence and there will be more minutes available for Jrue Holiday.

Verdict

vs 32.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral

Projection vs line67supports it

Consistency54neutral

Matchup100supports it

Projection

29.0 FS(×0.84 context)

L5 36.4 · L10 35.2 · med 28.3

Consistency

Steady

floor 26.7 · ceil 48.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2012 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Season12 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	6/12
	50%	6/12
	50%	6/12
32.5Current	50%	6/12
	50%	6/12
	50%	6/12
	42%	5/12

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 32.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 32.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home80%4/5Low

Away29%2/7Low

Days since last game

1 day50%2/4Low

2 days100%2/2Low

3+ days20%1/5Low

Next matchup — @ TOR

Nov 10, 2026

29thof 30 in FS allowed to guards

TOR allows 20.5 FS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 42 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Ja Morant has gone over 32.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. TOR has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 29th-most FS of 30 teams (20.5 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 10.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.