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Utah JazzJaren Jackson Jr.
#20 · F-C · 6-10 · 242 lb · 32 games
Stats updated: Feb 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2018 · Rd 1, Pick 4
- College
- Michigan State
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 21.0 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Jaren Jackson Jr.'s status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Surgery
Jackson was traded from Memphis to Utah in February, though he appeared in only three regular-season games for the Jazz before undergoing surgery due to a growth in his left knee. The 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year will look to make his presence felt on that end of the floor and anchor a now Kessler-less Jazz frontcourt. Jackson's two-way production will be crucial for a Utah team that's looking to return to playoff contention, and he hasn't averaged fewer than 18.6 points per game since the 2021-22 campaign, when he averaged 16.3 points per tilt for the Grizzlies.
Verdict
vs 20.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 15/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency54neutral
Projection
22.3 PTS(×1.00 context)
L5 23.0 · L10 21.6 · med 20.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 15.2 · ceil 26.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season32 games
53%over
17 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66% | 21/32 | ||
| 59% | 19/32 | ||
| 56% | 18/32 | ||
| 20.5Current | 53% | 17/32 | |
| 44% | 14/32 | ||
| 41% | 13/32 | ||
| 38% | 12/32 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%8/13Low
Away47%9/19Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low
1 day43%6/14Low
2 days56%5/9Low
3+ days67%4/6Low
Last matchup — vs MIN
Feb 2, 2026
12thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
MIN allows 14.0 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 166 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over 20.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 12th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.