Utah Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Oct 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over 36.5 FS in 6 of his last 9 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2018 · Rd 1, Pick 4
College: Michigan State
Country: USA
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 37.4 FS · our line

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OutJaren Jackson Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Knee Not Specified
Est. return:: Dec 14, 2026

Jackson sustained the injury early in Monday's loss to Memphis, and he's now expected to miss at least a month and a half of action. The star big man's absence creates a major void in the Utah lineup, one that is likely to be filled by a timeshare of Jaxson Hayes (shoulder), Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba. The Jazz could also shift Lauri Markkanen (wrist), when healthy, to the center spot at times, perhaps allowing Ace Bailey to spend more time at power forward.

Verdict

vs 36.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 39% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it

Projection vs line39argues against it

Consistency55neutral

Matchup50neutral

Projection

32.5 FS(×0.93 context)

L5 33.6 · L10 39.6 · med 39.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 28.6 · ceil 44.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 1010 games

67%over

6 over · 3 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%

Last 2014 games

54%over

7 over · 6 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%

Season14 games

54%over

7 over · 6 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	64%	9/14
	64%	9/14
	57%	8/14
36.5Current	54%	7/13
	43%	6/14
	43%	6/14
	43%	6/14

Last 14 games — FS per game vs. line 36.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 36.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

1 day80%4/5Low

2 days25%1/4Low

3+ days67%2/3Low

Next matchup — @ MIN

Nov 9, 2026

18thof 30 in FS allowed to forwards

MIN allows 24.0 FS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 29 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over 36.5 FS 6 of 9 decided times (67%) — versus 54% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 18th-most FS of 30 teams (24.0 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 10.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.