Loading…
Sacramento KingsKeegan Murray
#13 · F · 6-8 · 225 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Feb 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 4
- College
- Iowa
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 15.4 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Keegan Murray's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Ankle Sprain
Watkins believes De'Andre Hunter will start at small forward next to Murray ahead of Alex Karaban. Murray underwent an arthroscopic procedure to remove loose bodies in his left ankle back in May, though he's expected to be ready in time for training camp.
Verdict
vs 15.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
14.4 PTS(×0.98 context)
L5 16.4 · L10 13.7 · med 12.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.0 · ceil 23.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 15.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low
1 day57%4/7Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days40%2/5Low
Last matchup — @ MEM
Feb 23, 2026
4thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
MEM allows 14.9 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 170 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Keegan Murray has gone over 15.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. MEM has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 4th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.9 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.