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Sacramento KingsKeegan Murray
#13 · F · 6-8 · 225 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 4
- College
- Iowa
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 13.4 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKeegan Murray isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Ankle
- Est. return:
- Nov 10, 2026
Murray has officially been diagnosed with left ankle capsulitis, and he's set to miss at least the next 10 days. Precious Achiuwa has been starting in Murray's absence, and he should continue to see opportunities along with De'Andre Hunter and Daeqwon Plowden.
Verdict
vs 13.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency19argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
10.3 PTS(×0.92 context)
L5 11.0 · L10 13.7 · med 13.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.6 · ceil 18.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 13.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 29% | 4/14 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low
1 day40%2/5Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — vs LAL
Nov 5, 2026
3rdof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
LAL allows 15.0 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Keegan Murray has gone over 13.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAL has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 3rd-most PTS of 30 teams (15.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.