Sacramento Kings

Keegan Murray Steals

Stats updated: Oct 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Keegan Murray has gone over 0.5 STL in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 4
College: Iowa
Country: USA
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksSteals · season avg 0.6 STL · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutKeegan Murray isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Ankle
Est. return:: Nov 10, 2026

Murray has officially been diagnosed with left ankle capsulitis, and he's set to miss at least the next 10 days. Precious Achiuwa has been starting in Murray's absence, and he should continue to see opportunities along with De'Andre Hunter and Daeqwon Plowden.

Verdict

vs 0.5 STLSteals

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)72supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

0.4 STL(×0.82 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2014 games

43%over

6 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%

Season14 games

43%over

6 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%

Alternate lines — Steals (STL)

STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate STL line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	43%	6/14
	14%	2/14
	0%	0/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — STL per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low

1 day20%1/5Low

2 days50%1/2Low

3+ days50%2/4Low

Next matchup — vs SAS

Nov 7, 2026

20thof 30 in STL allowed to forwards

SAS allows 0.8 STL per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 27 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Keegan Murray has gone over 0.5 STL 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 43% across the full season. SAS has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 20th-most STL of 30 teams (0.8 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.