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Atlanta HawksMouhamed Gueye
#18 · F · 6-11 · 210 lb · 38 games
Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 2, Pick 39
- College
- Washington State
- Country
- Senegal
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 6.5 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Mouhamed Gueye's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Foot Fracture
Gueye will be re-evaluated by medical staff in 3-to-4 months, which means he'll miss all of training camp and preseason and likely the start of the 2026-27 regular season. It's a brutal blow for the fourth-year big man, given that the Hawks used the No. 23 overall pick of the 2026 NBA Draft to select St. John's product Zuby Ejiofor. Gueye's absence means Ejiofor will have more opportunities in the preseason, and the rookie could establish a key role off the bench behind Onyeka Okongwu and projected backup center Jock Landale (ankle).
Verdict
vs 5.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
6.2 PTS(×1.04 context)
L5 7.4 · L10 6.1 · med 5.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 10.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season38 games
50%over
19 over · 19 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–65%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 29/38 | ||
| 68% | 26/38 | ||
| 66% | 25/38 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 19/38 | |
| 39% | 15/38 | ||
| 34% | 13/38 | ||
| 29% | 11/38 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%8/16Medium
Away50%11/22Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)57%4/7Low
1 day36%4/11Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days50%8/16Medium
Last matchup — @ CLE
Apr 8, 2026
9thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
CLE allows 14.3 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 149 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mouhamed Gueye has gone over 5.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CLE has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 9th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.