Atlanta Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye Steals

Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Mouhamed Gueye has gone over 0.5 STL in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2023 · Rd 2, Pick 39
College: Washington State
Country: Senegal
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksSteals · season avg 1.1 STL · our line

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Game-Time DecisionConfirm Mouhamed Gueye's status before the game.

Injury:: Left Foot Fracture

Gueye will be re-evaluated by medical staff in 3-to-4 months, which means he'll miss all of training camp and preseason and likely the start of the 2026-27 regular season. It's a brutal blow for the fourth-year big man, given that the Hawks used the No. 23 overall pick of the 2026 NBA Draft to select St. John's product Zuby Ejiofor. Gueye's absence means Ejiofor will have more opportunities in the preseason, and the rookie could establish a key role off the bench behind Onyeka Okongwu and projected backup center Jock Landale (ankle).

Verdict

vs 0.5 STLSteals

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 56% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.1 STL(×1.04 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2020 games

60%over

12 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%

Season38 games

53%over

20 over · 18 under

Medium confidence95% CI 37%–68%

Alternate lines — Steals (STL)

STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate STL line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	53%	20/38
	39%	15/38
	13%	5/38
	5%	2/38

Last 20 games — STL per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%8/16Medium

Away55%12/22Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)29%2/7Low

1 day73%8/11Low

2 days67%2/3Low

3+ days50%8/16Medium

Last matchup — @ CLE

Apr 8, 2026

5thof 30 in STL allowed to forwards

CLE allows 1.0 STL per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 149 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Mouhamed Gueye has gone over 0.5 STL 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 53% across the full season. CLE has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 5th-most STL of 30 teams (1.0 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.