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Miami HeatMyron Gardner
#15 · F · 6-5 · 220 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arkansas-Little Rock
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Points · season avg 6.6 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Myron Gardner's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Ankle Sprain
Gardner's Summer League is over because of an ankle sprain he suffered in Friday's California Classic opener in San Francisco against the Spurs. The swingman is missing out on valuable reps as he competes for a rotation spot with the Heat, but he does have plenty of time to recuperate for training camp in the fall.
Verdict
vs 5.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)48neutral
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency14argues against it
Projection
6.9 PTS(×1.02 context)
L5 5.6 · L10 7.1 · med 7.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 9.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 16/18 | ||
| 83% | 15/18 | ||
| 67% | 12/18 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 39% | 7/18 | ||
| 28% | 5/18 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day43%3/7Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days71%5/7Low
Last matchup — vs SAS
Mar 23, 2026
13thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
SAS allows 13.9 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 166 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Myron Gardner has gone over 5.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. SAS has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 13th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.9 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.