Miami Heat

Myron Gardner Steals

Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Myron Gardner has gone over 0.5 STL in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Arkansas-Little Rock
Country: USA
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksSteals · season avg 0.9 STL · our line

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Game-Time DecisionConfirm Myron Gardner's status before the game.

Injury:: Left Ankle Sprain

Gardner's Summer League is over because of an ankle sprain he suffered in Friday's California Classic opener in San Francisco against the Spurs. The swingman is missing out on valuable reps as he competes for a rotation spot with the Heat, but he does have plenty of time to recuperate for training camp in the fall.

Verdict

vs 0.5 STLSteals

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 56% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.8 STL(×1.02 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.9 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2018 games

56%over

10 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%

Season18 games

56%over

10 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%

Alternate lines — Steals (STL)

STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate STL line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	56%	10/18
	33%	6/18
	6%	1/18
	0%	0/18

Last 18 games — STL per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home56%5/9Low

Away56%5/9Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low

1 day57%4/7Low

2 days50%1/2Low

3+ days57%4/7Low

Last matchup — vs SAS

Mar 23, 2026

10thof 30 in STL allowed to forwards

SAS allows 1.0 STL per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 166 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Myron Gardner has gone over 0.5 STL 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. SAS has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 10th-most STL of 30 teams (1.0 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.