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Pittsburgh SteelersAaron Rodgers
#8 · QB · 6' 2" · 223 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- California
- Experience
- 23 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 209.5 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAaron Rodgers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
As the report notes, the veteran QB last saw significant exhibition-game action eight seasons ago, but Rodgers indicated Monday that McCarthy "(wants him out there for) 30 or 40 plays." On that topic, Rodgers told his coach, "If you want me to play, I'll play. I'm not saying I want to do it. But if he wants me to, I will." The Steelers' preseason opener is Thursday, Aug. 13 against the Packers.
Verdict
vs 216.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency60neutral
Projection
230.2 PASS YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 219.6 · L10 208.2 · med 211.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 161.0 · ceil 249.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 216.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 216.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rico Dowdle out+28.1 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
225.3 PASS YDS
71% over 216.5
With (9g)
197.2 PASS YDS
33% over 216.5
Last matchup — vs HOU
Jan 13, 2026
22ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
HOU allows 199.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 19 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Aaron Rodgers has gone over 216.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (199.7 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 50.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.