Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Aaron Rodgers has gone over 14.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: California
Experience: 23 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 14.1 FS · our line

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OutAaron Rodgers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

As the report notes, the veteran QB last saw significant exhibition-game action eight seasons ago, but Rodgers indicated Monday that McCarthy "(wants him out there for) 30 or 40 plays." On that topic, Rodgers told his coach, "If you want me to play, I'll play. I'm not saying I want to do it. But if he wants me to, I will." The Steelers' preseason opener is Thursday, Aug. 13 against the Packers.

Verdict

vs 14.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line50neutral

Consistency22argues against it

Projection

13.2 FS(×1.10 context)

L5 12.1 · L10 12.2 · med 13.8

Consistency

Variable

floor 8.4 · ceil 17.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Season16 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	69%	11/16
	63%	10/16
	50%	8/16
14.5Current	50%	8/16
	50%	8/16
	44%	7/16
	27%	4/15

Last 16 games — FS per game vs. line 14.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 14.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away57%4/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days47%7/15Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rico Dowdle out+2.6 FS when he sits

Without (7g)

15.5 FS

71% over 14.5

With (9g)

13.0 FS

33% over 14.5

Last matchup — vs HOU

Jan 13, 2026

31stof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

HOU allows 13.0 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 19 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Rodgers has gone over 14.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most FS of 32 teams (13.0 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.