Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron Rodgers Passing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Aaron Rodgers has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: California
Experience: 23 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.3 PASS TD · PrizePicks line

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OutAaron Rodgers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Rodgers threw for just 84 yards on 22 first-half pass attempts as the Steelers took a 10-3 deficit into the locker room. Things didn't get any better after halftime, as Rodgers lost a fumble in the fourth quarter that was scooped up by New England's defense for a touchdown and added an interception on a ball that hit rookie receiver Germie Bernard in the hands. Bernard and DK Metcalf turned 17 combined targets into just 62 yards as Pittsburgh's passing game struggled against New England's stout secondary in the absence of starting wide receiver Michael Pittman (foot). Things may not get much easier for Rodgers in Week 3 against a Bengals defense that just held Houston to six points.

Verdict

vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 28% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)35argues against it

Projection vs line41neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.8 PASS TD(×1.01 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.4 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2018 games

33%over

6 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 16%–56%

Season18 games

33%over

6 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 16%–56%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	78%	14/18
1.5Current	33%	6/18
	11%	2/18
	11%	2/18
	0%	0/18

Last 18 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home30%3/10Low

Away38%3/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days29%5/17Medium

Next matchup — vs CIN

Sep 27, 2026

32ndof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

CIN allows 0.0 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Rodgers has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 33% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 32nd-most PASS TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.