Loading…
San Francisco 49ersBrock Purdy
#13 · QB · 6' 1" · 220 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 235.5 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrock Purdy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Purdy was in complete command of the offense throughout Sunday's lopsided win, throwing only two incompletions while finishing as the team's leading rusher for the cherry on top. The 49ers have been one of the league's best teams in the early going, outscoring the Rams and Dolphins by a combined margin of 62-20 heading into a Week 3 home game against the Cardinals. Purdy has contributed six total touchdowns during this hot start, including third-quarter touchdown passes of 12 yards to George Kittle and six yards to Kyle Juszczyk against the Dolphins following Purdy's two-yard touchdown run in the second quarter.
Verdict
vs 242.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency55neutral
Projection
231.0 PASS YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 204.2 · L10 227.5 · med 233.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 178.0 · ceil 295.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 242.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 |
Situational splits
Over 242.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — vs ARI
Sep 27, 2026
16thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
ARI allows 222.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brock Purdy has gone over 242.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 54% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 16th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (222.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 63.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 239.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.2% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.6% EV
Model vs market (over)-2.4%
Our model puts the over at 47.5% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (238.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.